As we enter a new year, experts expect UK house prices to continue to rise due to a lack of homes coming on to the market. Data from the Land Registry shows prices are up by 10% year-on-year, as buyers compete for properties.
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What happened to the property market in 2021?
The property market is open and active throughout the UK, with estate agents conducting in-person house viewings and buyers able to move home. The market soared during 2021, with activity led by the government temporarily cutting stamp duty. The biggest savings of up to £15,000 ended on 30 June, but buyers in England and Northern Ireland were able to save up to £2,500 if they bought a home before the end of September.
Transaction numbers peak around stamp duty deadlines The number of houses being sold rose significantly during the tax holiday, with peaks in June and September as buyers sought to get transactions over the line in time to save on tax. Provisional data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) shows that just over 100,000 sales went through in December as the market bounced back after a post tax-break lull.
The graph below shows the number of sales registered each month since the start of 2020. How have house prices changed? We’re getting a clearer picture of the impact that coronavirus has had on house prices, but continued uncertainty over what will happen next with the pandemic means figures could continue to fluctuate.
The most reliable barometer of house prices is the Land Registry’s UK House Price Index, which is based on sold property prices. It works on a two-month lag, so the latest available figures are for November. The Land Registry says that the average price of a property in the UK rose by 10% year-on-year in November to reach £270,708, as shown in the graph below. Rightmove’s house price index is more up to date, but it’s based on asking prices rather than sold prices.
In January’s report, it found that average asking prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 7.6% year-on-year. Nationwide’s index (based on mortgage lending) reported a 1% monthly and 10.4% annual rise in prices in December. Halifax’s index (also based on lending) reported a 1.1% monthly and 9.8% annual increase. Find out more: should you pay attention to house price indices?
Lack of supply could keep prices high The recent rise in demand from buyers hasn’t been met by a flurry of new properties coming on to the market, and this imbalance could keep prices high. The estate agent trade body Propertymark reported an average of 29 buyers for every available property in November, with competition resulting in 38% of homes selling for above their original asking price.
The estate agency Savills predicts prices will rise by 3.5% in 2022 and 3% in 2023. The property portal Zoopla has similar projections. It forecasts a 3% increase in 2022, with 1.2m house purchases going through. Halifax predicts a slower market, with price changes of 0%-2%.
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